Download PDF by Rafik A Aliev, Oleg H Huseynov: Decision Theory with Imperfect Information

By Rafik A Aliev, Oleg H Huseynov

ISBN-10: 9814611034

ISBN-13: 9789814611039

On a daily basis selection making in complicated human-centric platforms are characterised through imperfect decision-relevant info. The vital issues of the present determination theories are that they don't have strength to house events within which chances and occasions are vague. during this e-book, we describe a brand new thought of choice making with imperfect info. the purpose is to shift the root of determination research and monetary habit from the area bivalent common sense to the area fuzzy common sense and Z-restriction, from exterior modeling of behavioral judgements to the framework of mixed states.

This booklet could be worthy for execs, lecturers, managers and graduate scholars in fuzzy common sense, selection sciences, synthetic intelligence, mathematical economics, and computational economics.

Readership: pros, lecturers, managers and graduate scholars in fuzzy common sense, selection sciences, synthetic intelligence, mathematical economics, and computational economics.

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In its sense, decision making implies making a choice among appropriate alternatives. Some decisions, which are to be done in simple or quite familiar situations, can be made simply on the base of intuitive judgments. However, in general, making choices encounters the fact that the result of our choice depends on objective conditions of future, which are uncertain and out of our control. This means that making sound decisions requires to consistently take into account influence of various factors under uncertainty.

Sm}. A state of nature Si is one possible objective condition. is considered as a 舠a space of mutually exclusive and exhaustive states舡, according to a formulation suggested by L. Savage [360]. , m will take place. The main problem is that it is not known for sure, which Si will take place. For example, in the problem of business development, the set of states of nature may be considered as = {S1, S2, S3, S4}, where S1 denotes 舠high demand and low competition舡, S2舑舠high demand and medium competition舡 S3 舑 舠medium demand and low competition舡, S4 舑 舠medium demand and high competition舡.

The only information is that the color is either white or black. Assume the two acts which can be chosen prior to open the box: the first gives $10 if the color is white and 0 if it is black, the second gives $0 if the color is white and $10 if is black. These acts can be written as functions f and g : f(white) = 10, f(black) = 0, g(white) = 0, g(black) = 10. As information on white and black is symmetric, we suppose . Consider now the following mixes of these acts with act h = g: and . This will produce fh(white) = 5, fh(black) = 5 and gh(white) = g(white) = 0, gh(black) = g(black) = 10.

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Decision Theory with Imperfect Information by Rafik A Aliev, Oleg H Huseynov

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