By Patricia Grossi, Howard Kunreuther
Based at the learn that has been carried out at Wharton threat administration Center over the previous 5 years on catastrophic risk.
Covers a scorching subject within the mild of modern terroristic actions and nature catastrophes.
Develops possibility administration recommendations for decreasing and spreading the losses from destiny disasters.
Provides word list of definitions and phrases used in the course of the book.
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Additional info for CATASTROPHE MODELING: A NEW APPROACH TO MANAGING RISK
By the 1970’s, studies theorizing on the source and frequency of events were published. S. Water Resources Council publication on flood hazard (USWRC, 1967), the Algermissen study on earthquake risk (Algermissen, 1969) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) hurricane forecasts (Neumann, 1972). S. researchers to compile hazard and loss studies, estimating the impact of earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, and other natural disasters. Notable compilations include Brinkmann’s summary of hurricane hazards in the United States (1975) and Steinbrugge’s anthology of losses from earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis (1982).
Buyers of condominiums in these areas seeking a mortgage would then be required to buy earthquake insurance (Lehman, 1996). Interestingly enough, in 1996, the California State Legislature sought to bar this requirement, citing an undue burden on condominium owners. As a result, Freddie Mac changed its policy to require that a condominium buyer (a) purchase earthquake insurance; (b) purchase a property located in a low-risk area; or (c) pay an additional fee with the mortgage loan. Real estate agents, developers, engineers, contractors, and other service providers also play a supporting, yet important role in the management of risk from natural disasters.
Sum of the probabilities for all of the events equals one). 1 are assumed to be independent Bernoulli random variables, each with a probability mass function defined as: If an event does not occur, the loss is zero. 1, is the sum of the expected losses of each of the individual events for a given year and is given by: Assuming that during a given year, only one disaster occurs, the exceedance probability for a given level of loss, can be determined by calculating: The resulting exceedance probability is the annual probability that the loss exceeds a given value.
CATASTROPHE MODELING: A NEW APPROACH TO MANAGING RISK by Patricia Grossi, Howard Kunreuther